The surge in Oscar speculation disturbingly aligns with the Pope's health issues.

      There is capturing the spirit of the times, and then there is Conclave: When the film premiered last fall to widespread acclaim, its narrative about the election of a new pope following the unexpected death of the previous one seemed almost symbolic. Now, with Pope Francis in critical condition in the hospital — coinciding with Conclave's Oscars run — the film resonates in a hauntingly poignant way.

      Directed by Edward Berger and based on Robert Harris's novel, the story centers on Cardinal Thomas Lawrence (Ralph Fiennes) as he guides a clandestine conclave to elect the new pope. The film unfolds with unexpected twists, revelations, and discussions regarding the future direction of the Catholic Church. It intertwines elements of politics with faith.

      When the film was released, the notion of selecting a new pope felt far removed, but it now weighs heavily on the hearts of the faithful and Pope Francis's supporters beyond the church. The 88-year-old pontiff was admitted to the hospital 11 days ago for bronchitis, which has since escalated to pneumonia. The New York Times reported that the Vatican was overwhelmed with rumors of his death on Monday.

      Conclave's Oscar Prospects

      Oscar voting concluded a week ago amidst the crisis surrounding the pope's health. As billions of people worldwide prayed for his recovery, Conclave gained traction.

      The film was regarded as a strong Oscar contender right from its debut at the Telluride Film Festival on August 30. In an unpredictable Oscars race, Emilia Perez emerged as the initial frontrunner, until controversial tweets from star Karla Sofía Gascón negatively impacted the film's chances. At one point, The Brutalist appeared to be a formidable competitor, though its prospects may have suffered due to revelations regarding its limited use of A.I.

      Anora, which some had dismissed after failing to win any Golden Globes, has been performing exceptionally well, becoming the favorite in several categories, including Best Picture. However, as The Ankler noted on Monday, Conclave’s prospects are improving. In an article titled “Conclave Quietly Maneuvers Into Position as a Potential Anora-Killer,” writer Katey Rich conveyed that the pope drama now poses “a legitimate second-place threat.”

      Oscar indicators for Anora include winning the Palme d’Or last May and securing three Independent Spirit Awards this past Saturday, including Best Feature, Best Director for Sean Baker, and Best Lead Performance for Mikey Madison.

      In contrast, Conclave gained momentum at the Screen Actors Guild Awards the following night, winning Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. It also performed notably well at the BAFTAs earlier this month, winning Best Film and Best Screenplay (Adapted) for Peter Straughan.

      Conclave is nominated for eight Oscars on Sunday, compared to Anora's six. Anora still appears to hold an advantage in the Best Picture category, partly because Baker is nominated for Best Director while Berger is not.

      Nonetheless, Conclave tells a story of a race where an unexpected winner emerges at the last moment due to unforeseen circumstances. It may prove challenging for voters to overlook its significance, particularly as its narrative echoes real-life events in a disconcerting and sorrowful way.

      Oscar voters have historically appreciated films that capture the essence of the moment. This year, that may indeed be Anora, with its themes of class struggle, recognition, and the compromises we all make, resonating with those who have a conscience in 2025.

      Yet, Conclave’s almost surreal sense of urgency in the news might render it just as relevant.

      Main image: Ralph Fiennes in Conclave. Focus Features.